POLYMARKET WALLETS · RECORDS AGAINST THE ODDS

Polymarket Weather wallets: records against the odds

Wallets whose full trade history we hold and whose record clears our bar on Weather, each judged against the odds it paid. Ranked by how reliably each record beat the odds it paid: the low end of what its bets allow, so a long record ranks above a short streak. Each row shows the desk it is ranked on.

547 wallets on Weather, 251 to 300 on this page. Scored 2026-10-05.

The figure on the right is how many points more often the wallet won than the prices it paid said it would, on the desk the row names, counted cautiously, so a short record counts for less. The list is ranked on it.

How the bar works

A wallet is listed on a desk only when all of this is true:

We hold its full trade history, so the record is complete rather than a sample.
It bets on outcomes. Wallets that make markets or trade both sides of one are left out.
It has settled at least the desk's number of bets.
It won at least 60% of them.
It came out ahead, and would still have come out ahead without its single best bet.
It put at least $500 at risk on the desk.

Each desk needs its own number of settled bets before a record counts. The bar in full, desk by desk

Records, not advice

These are records of what wallets did, settled from their trades and judged against the prices they paid. Not advice, and not a trading signal. Watching a wallet is information, not a trade.

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