How a call is chosen and measured
Kahyna logs every call before its market resolves, and shows a model estimate as a call only when its edge over the order-book price is at least 2 percentage points and the entry costs at least 20 cents. Each call is counted once, and the win rate is the share of settled calls that went the called way, always beside its settled-call count; a desk gets a rate of its own only from five settled calls. A wallet joins Follow the money only when Kahyna holds its full history and, on one desk, it has settled at least that desk’s minimum number of bets (from 20 to 100), won at least 60% of them, staked at least $500 and made money even without its single best bet.
Kahyna shows a venue’s price and its own estimate of how likely an outcome is (one market at a time within the daily lookups, without limit on Pro). This page explains how that estimate becomes a call and how the result is counted. The changing figures are on the track record page, and members can sign in for the individual calls.
What the estimate is
The estimate is a probability for one side of a prediction market, shown next to the price and the uncertainty around the estimate. Different desks use information suited to their markets, such as spot price, the level a market resolves against, recent volatility, forecasts, ratings and the time left. It is an estimate, not advice, and never an instruction.
Different desks, separate evidence
Crypto, stocks, sports, weather, macro and space are separate desks where those markets and models are available. A desk split is published only after at least five of its calls have settled. A smaller desk sample contributes to the total, but gets no rate of its own.
What reaches a decision-support rail
A call must have at least a two percentage-point model edge after the real side is priced from the order book, and the entry must cost at least 20 cents. A verdict the model has already declined is not shown as a call. These rules leave the underlying price and model observation intact; they decide only whether a model estimate is shown as a call.
The sports desk publishes no calls with an entry between 50 and 70 cents, the band where its measured record has fallen short of the price. The weather desk is suspended: it publishes no calls at any price while it continues to score markets, so evidence can accumulate for deciding whether to bring it back.
The current-model record
The public record covers the current call-selection model. A call qualifies when it was shown at least once in that record; if it appeared on several rails or several times, it is counted once and priced from its first showing in the record.
How the figures are calculated
A call is logged before the market resolves. Once it resolves YES or NO, the hit rate is the number that went the called way divided by all settled calls. On the track record every rate carries its settled-call count.
A hit rate is not a profit figure. Winning calls priced near certainty return only a little, while a wrong call costs the whole stake, so a high hit rate does not by itself mean the desk made money.
How the followed-wallet record differs
The record of the wallets we follow has its own forward log. Wallets are picked first, each displayed position is logged, and only outcomes that happen afterwards count. The older performance used to choose those wallets is not published as evidence of skill, because it measures the selection process. The public page always states how many calls were logged and how many settled; once five have settled, it shows the forward sample's win rate with its settled-call count.
The publish bar
Kahyna re-derives returns from live, fee-aware order-book quotes. When nothing clears the selection rules, a rail shows nothing rather than manufacturing a signal. A high hit rate can still lose money, a small sample can reverse quickly, and no result on the current-model record guarantees the next one.
How a wallet gets on Follow the money
Follow the money lists wallets by their own settled record, one desk at a time. A wallet is listed on a desk only when all of this is true, and the check runs again every 6 hours:
- We hold its full trade history, so the record is complete rather than a sample.
- It bets on outcomes. Wallets that make markets or trade both sides of one are left out: their win rate says nothing about judgement.
- It has settled at least the desk’s number of bets, in the table below.
- It won at least 60% of them.
- It made money, and would still have made money without its single best bet.
- It staked at least $500 on the desk.
| Desk | Settled bets needed |
|---|---|
| Sports | 20 |
| Esports | 88 |
| Politics | 20 |
| World | 20 |
| Crypto | 20 |
| Stocks | 98 |
| Macro | 50 |
| Weather | 100 |
| Other | 20 |
The counts differ because desks differ. For each one we measured how many settled bets a record needs before it says more about the wallet than about the desk’s average, and no desk goes below 20. Esports needs 88: how we measured it.
Beating the odds
A price is the market’s odds: a share bought at 60 cents should win about 60% of the time. Adding up the prices a wallet paid gives the number of bets it should have won by the odds alone. “Beats the odds by 10 points” means it won 10 more bets in every 100 than its prices said it would. A high win rate bought at 95 cents beats nothing, which is why every wallet’s win rate on Follow the money sits next to this number.
Positions, Convergence and Activity
We read the trades of the wallets we follow every 2 minutes. Positions lists what they still hold and is rebuilt every 15 minutes. A market joins Convergence when at least 3 of them hold it. Activity shows their trades from the last 12 hours, newest first, and the fills of one order, each within 15 minutes of the next, are one line. All of it is a record of what the wallets did. Kahyna never says what to buy, and offers no portfolio to copy.
Alerts
Pro members can be told when a wallet on their own list opens a position of $100 or more, when a position passes $1,000, $5,000, $10,000 or $50,000 at cost, or when a market it holds joins Convergence. We look every 5 minutes, only at trades made in the last 6 hours, and each alert fires once. Email goes only to a confirmed address, 12 messages a day at most.
Live matches
Scores, maps and prices on the Live page are Polymarket’s own match data, read every minute. Each match opened, one lookup, also shows which of the wallets we follow hold each side, with the money and their record; Pro has no daily limit.