POLYMARKET WALLETS · RECORDS AGAINST THE ODDS
Polymarket Macro wallets: records against the odds
Wallets whose full trade history we hold and whose record clears our bar on Macro, each judged against the odds it paid. Ranked by how reliably each record beat the odds it paid: the low end of what its bets allow, so a long record ranks above a short streak. Each row shows the desk it is ranked on.
15 wallets on Macro. Scored 2026-10-05.
- Wallet
0x40604cb1On Macro · 435 settled bets · 94% won · average price 90¢ · also listed on Sportsat least +1.6 pts - Wallet
0xcbd0f3b6On Macro · 159 settled bets · 100% won · average price 99¢ · also listed on Sports, Stocksat least -0.2 pts - Wallet
0x731a2417On Macro · 217 settled bets · 100% won · average price 100¢ · also listed on Stocks, Other, Weather, Sports, Cryptoat least -0.3 pts - Wallet
0xd188725fOn Macro · 81 settled bets · 100% won · average price 98¢at least -0.5 pts - Wallet
0xd420ccf2On Macro · 71 settled bets · 100% won · average price 98¢ · also listed on Otherat least -0.6 pts - Wallet
0x4025a99cOn Macro · 91 settled bets · 100% won · average price 99¢ · also listed on Sports, Stocksat least -0.7 pts - Wallet
0x9b8741e0On Macro · 60 settled bets · 100% won · average price 99¢ · trading style not confirmedat least -1.1 pts - Wallet
0x6e2c3937On Macro · 63 settled bets · 98% won · average price 98¢ · also listed on Cryptoat least -1.1 pts - Wallet
0xe16486cfOn Macro · 59 settled bets · 97% won · average price 96¢ · also listed on Esports, Crypto, Otherat least -2.6 pts - Wallet
0x743d681bOn Macro · 67 settled bets · 96% won · average price 94¢ · also listed on Otherat least -2.7 pts - Wallet
0x2c2b4400On Macro · 50 settled bets · 96% won · average price 96¢ · also listed on Other, Worldat least -3.1 pts - Wallet
0x1cf169dfOn Macro · 52 settled bets · 88% won · average price 86¢ · also listed on Other · trading style not confirmedat least -3.2 pts - Wallet
0x98a88cd1On Macro · 108 settled bets · 62% won · average price 59¢ · also listed on Other, Politics, Worldat least -3.3 pts - Wallet
0xa19cbabaOn Macro · 64 settled bets · 67% won · average price 63¢at least -3.7 pts - Wallet
0x9d736920On Macro · 62 settled bets · 87% won · average price 86¢ · also listed on Crypto, Politicsat least -4.3 pts
The figure on the right is how many points more often the wallet won than the prices it paid said it would, on the desk the row names, counted cautiously, so a short record counts for less. The list is ranked on it.
How the bar works
A wallet is listed on a desk only when all of this is true:
- We hold its full trade history, so the record is complete rather than a sample.
- It bets on outcomes. Wallets that make markets or trade both sides of one are left out.
- It has settled at least the desk's number of bets.
- It won at least 60% of them.
- It came out ahead, and would still have come out ahead without its single best bet.
- It put at least $500 at risk on the desk.
Each desk needs its own number of settled bets before a record counts. The bar in full, desk by desk
Records, not advice
These are records of what wallets did, settled from their trades and judged against the prices they paid. Not advice, and not a trading signal. Watching a wallet is information, not a trade.
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