Learn prediction markets

Kahyna’s five Learn guides each answer one question about prediction markets in plain words: how to read the odds, what beating the odds means, what a trade really costs, how Follow the money works and how to read a trader’s track record. A price on Polymarket, as on any prediction market, is the crowd’s estimate of how likely something is. A YES share priced at 62 cents pays $1 if the event happens, so the market puts its chance at about 62%.

• How to read Polymarket oddsA Polymarket price is a probability, as on any prediction market. What a share pays, why YES and NO add up to about $1, and the bid, the ask and the mid.
• What does beating the odds mean?Beating the odds means winning more often than your entry prices implied. How Kahyna measures it in points, and why a win rate alone misleads.
• What a Polymarket trade really costsThe price on screen is not what a Polymarket trade costs. How the spread, the taker fee and slippage add up, and the win rate you need to break even.
• How Follow the money worksPublic records of prediction-market wallets with strong records, judged against the odds they paid: how wallets are chosen, what a lookup opens, and privacy.
• How to read a Polymarket trader’s track recordA Polymarket win rate means little alone. Set it against the prices paid, the settled bets behind it and the category, and see if it beats the odds.

How Kahyna makes its own calls is on the methodology page, and how they turned out is on the track record.