Polymarket Weather wallets: records against the odds

How the bar works

A wallet is listed on a desk only when all of this is true:

• We hold its full trade history, so the record is complete rather than a sample.
• It bets on outcomes. Wallets that make markets or trade both sides of one are left out.
• It has settled at least the desk's number of bets.
• It won at least 60% of them.
• It came out ahead, and would still have come out ahead without its single best bet.
• It put at least $500 at risk on the desk.

Each desk needs its own number of settled bets before a record counts. The bar in full, desk by desk

Records, not advice

These are records of what wallets did, settled from their trades and judged against the prices they paid. Not advice, and not a trading signal. Watching a wallet is information, not a trade.

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