How to read Polymarket odds
A price on Polymarket, as on any prediction market, is the crowd’s estimate of how likely something is. A YES share priced at 62 cents pays $1 if the event happens, so the market puts its chance at about 62%.
What does the price mean?
Every share pays $1 if its outcome happens and nothing if it does not. So a price in cents reads as a chance in percent: 62 cents means about a 62% chance.
The price moves as people buy and sell. It is the market’s view right now, not a promise about what will happen.
Why do YES and NO add up to about $1?
Only one side can win, and the winning share pays $1. If YES costs 62 cents, NO costs about 38 cents.
The two prices often add up to a little more than $1. The extra is the gap between buyers and sellers, and it is part of what a trade costs.
What are the bid, the ask and the mid?
The ask is the lowest price anyone will sell at, so it is what you pay to buy right now. The bid is the highest price anyone will pay, so it is what you get if you sell right now.
The mid is halfway between the two. Kahyna uses the mid to value a position that is still open.
How do I use the price to decide?
Compare the price with your own estimate. If you think an outcome has a 70% chance and a share costs 62 cents, your edge is 8 points before costs.
Costs come off that edge, so a small edge can disappear. Kahyna’s own probability estimate sits beside the price, one market at a time within the daily lookups (5 with no account, 15 with a free account) and with no limit on Pro, as one more input to your own decision.
When does a market pay out?
When the venue settles the market under its published rules. Winning shares then pay $1 and losing shares pay nothing.
Each venue writes its own rules for what counts as YES, so read them before you trade.