What does beating the odds mean?
A trader beats the odds when they win more often than the prices they paid said they would. Kahyna measures the gap in percentage points: a trader who paid prices implying a 40% chance and won 55% of the time beat the odds by 15 points.
Why is a win rate not enough?
Buying shares at 95 cents wins about 95% of the time and earns very little. A high win rate there only shows the price was right.
A win rate on its own rewards buying favourites. Comparing it with the prices paid shows whether the trader saw something the market did not.
How is it calculated?
Each entry price is the chance the market gave at the time: a share bought at 40 cents was a 40% chance. Kahyna averages those chances across a trader’s settled bets.
It then takes that average away from the share of bets that actually won. A 55% win rate on an average entry of 40 cents beats the odds by 15 points.
Does beating the odds mean making money?
Usually the two go together, but not always. Profit also depends on how much went into each bet and on trading costs.
A trader can beat the odds on many small bets and lose more on a few large ones. That is why Kahyna shows profit and return on money risked beside it.
How many bets does it take?
More than most people think. A short run of wins can be luck, and luck fades as bets pile up.
Kahyna only ranks traders with a minimum number of settled bets, and its default order uses a cautious lower bound, so a lucky streak does not top the list.
Where does Kahyna use it?
In Follow the money. Each listed wallet’s record is public: its win rate and how far it beat the odds, desk by desk. The leaders boards rank the listed wallets over 7 days, 30 days or all time, two ways: by how far they beat the odds they paid (the default, counted cautiously, so a short record counts for less) or by money made, the total of the window. Either way a wallet needs at least 5 settled bets in the window, and no board shows the dollars of a single bet. The positions a wallet still holds open one wallet at a time, one lookup each, with or without an account; Pro has no daily limit.