Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Outcome: Lula da Silva <4%
21%Polymarket’s price is 21¢ for a share that pays $1 if this happens: the market gives it a 21% chance.
Price read 23 Oct 2026, 13:19 UTC. Prices move; Polymarket shows the live one.
83.3% of them hold the same side.
Sides, amounts and records are on the Positions page.
Kahyna is an analytics site. Trading happens on Polymarket.
- Best ask
- 21¢
- Best bid
- 20¢
- Spread
- 1¢
- Volume, 24h
- $73,625
- Liquidity
- $100,707
- Closes
- 26 Oct 2026
A YES share costs the ask, 21¢, and sells for the bid, 20¢. The 1¢ between them is what a round trip costs before any fee. What a trade really costs
Recent prices
A price of 21¢ means the market, all traders together, puts the chance at 21%. How to read Polymarket odds
Prices are Polymarket's, from its public market data, read by Kahyna. Kahyna is not affiliated with Polymarket. The venue's own prices, shown as they were read. Not advice, and not a recommendation to trade.