Esports on Polymarket: why a record needs 88 bets
Measured
Kahyna added an Esports desk on 26 September 2026. Before ranking anyone on it, we measured how much history an esports record needs before it says more about the wallet than about luck: 88 settled bets, more than any desk but stocks and weather.
| 1,374,713 | settled Polymarket positions measured |
| 6,547 | wallets whose full history we hold |
| 293,135 | of those positions on esports, from 2,378 wallets |
| 88 | settled esports bets before a record counts |
A win rate on its own misleads
After their first 20 esports bets, the tenth of wallets with the best win rate had paid 82 cents a share on average. Buying heavy favourites wins most of the time by construction: at 82 cents, the odds alone say a bet comes in about 82% of the time.
27 of 914 wallets won every one of their first 20 esports bets. A perfect start is common enough that it cannot be the test.
How much record is enough
Kahyna ranks a wallet on a desk by blending its own return with the desk’s average. The more settled bets it has, the more the blend leans on its own record: after n bets, the record carries n ÷ (n + k) of the weight.
k is measured, not chosen. It compares how much one wallet’s results swing from bet to bet with how much wallets really differ from each other. For esports it came out at 87.04, so a wallet needs about 88 settled esports bets before its own record carries half the weight. That is the esports floor.
| Desk | Settled bets needed |
|---|---|
| Weather | 100 |
| Stocks | 98 |
| Esports | 88 |
| Macro | 50 |
| Sports, politics, world, crypto, other | 20 |
Does the ranking hold up afterwards?
We ranked wallets by that blend after their first 50 esports bets and followed their next 50. The top tenth returned 11.3% on the money they staked; all the wallets together returned 0.8%. The gap to the other nine tenths was 10.5 points, with a 95% interval of 5.4 to 15.7 points.
Over the next 25 bets instead of 50, no cut-off cleared zero with confidence. So the floor rests on k, the measured spread, rather than on a single forward test, and we will measure it again as more esports bets settle.
What it means on Kahyna
An esports wallet is listed in Follow the money only after 88 settled esports bets, with at least 60% of them won, money made even without its single best bet, and $500 staked. The esports list starts short, and that is the point: fewer wallets, each with a record that means something.
How it was measured
Run on 26 September 2026 over every settled Polymarket position of the 6,547 wallets whose full trade history Kahyna holds: 1,374,713 positions. Markets were sorted into desks by their titles, with the rules the site uses. Intervals come from 4,000 resamples of the wallets. Aggregates only: no wallet is named.