Wallet 0x864a9fa7
Its record on Polymarket, settled from its trades and judged against the odds it paid. Last active 29 Sep 2026; scored 5 Oct 2026.
Checked: trades like a bettor taking sides, not a market maker.
On Weather
- Settled bets
- 469
- Win rate
- 97%
- Average price
- 96¢
- Beats the odds
- +1.3 pts
On Weather it won 97% of bets priced around 96c. A price is the market’s odds, so beating the odds means winning more often than the prices said.
All desks (it trades one): 469 settled bets, 97% won at an average 96¢, +1.3 pts against the odds. Every desk this wallet trades, added together. Whether a record predicts the next bet was tested per desk, so this total carries no such test.
Desk by desk
| Desk | Settled bets | Win rate | Average price | Beats the odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WeatherClears the bar here. On this desk a wallet's past record has not been shown to predict its next bet. | 469 | 97% | 96¢ | +1.3 pts |
How the bar works
This wallet is listed because its record clears our bar on at least one desk:
- We hold its full trade history, so the record is complete rather than a sample.
- It bets on outcomes. Wallets that make markets or trade both sides of one are left out.
- It has settled at least the desk's number of bets.
- It won at least 60% of them.
- It came out ahead, and would still have come out ahead without its single best bet.
- It put at least $500 at risk on the desk.
Each desk sets its own number of settled bets. The bar in full, desk by desk
Records, not advice
These are records of what wallets did, settled from their trades and judged against the prices they paid. Not advice, and not a trading signal. Watching a wallet is information, not a trade.