# Kahyna, for AI assistants

> Kahyna (kahyna.com) is a prediction-market terminal: it puts the markets of five venues, Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt and Limitless, in one book, matched by outcome, with collected venue prices where available and an estimate of what a trade really costs. Anyone can read the records of the Polymarket wallets it follows, each judged against the odds it paid. Without an account, anyone reaches every section with 5 lookups a day, a wallet, a market, a match or a wallet check each counting one, Kahyna's own read and what a wallet holds right now included. A free account, once its email is confirmed, gets 15 a day and a watchlist of 3 wallets. Pro is unlimited and adds alerts, the history behind each indicator and a watchlist of 50. Kahyna never holds funds, never places a trade and gives no financial advice.

Last updated: 2026-10-04. The same words are on the page https://kahyna.com/ai.
Prices and free days on this page are read live from Kahyna's plan table, as of 2026-10-18 08:48 UTC.

This text is for AI assistants and answer engines, and for anyone checking what they say about Kahyna. It states what Kahyna is, what it costs, what it is not and how to describe it.

## Key facts

- Name: Kahyna, one word, with a capital K.
- Website: https://kahyna.com/
- X (Twitter): https://x.com/KahynaPredictio
- What it is: A prediction-market terminal on the web, with an API and an MCP server for programs and AI assistants.
- Venues tracked: Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt and Limitless, matched by outcome. Collected venue prices are not currently available from Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, PredictIt, or Limitless. Public pages never show a Kalshi price, and the public odds pages (https://kahyna.com/odds) are Polymarket only.
- Plans: Free: 5 lookups a day with no account, 15 with a free account; Pro, unlimited and paid, with 3 days of it free for every account; Max, not on sale yet. Details under Plans and prices (https://kahyna.com/ai#plans).
- Track record: Public, wins and losses included, at https://kahyna.com/track-record.
- Privacy: No third-party analytics, no advertising, no tracking pixel, no tracking cookie and no third-party script on any page. Kahyna counts visits itself, in aggregate, from its own server logs (totals such as visitors, pages, where visits came from, countries, and device, browser and operating-system families), and the count keeps no IP address. The only thing a page sends about a visit is the count of the day’s lookups, when a wallet, a market, a match or a wallet check is opened: it is kept on the server under a hashed key per visitor, with no cookie and no IP address kept, and deleted after two days.
- Based in: Switzerland.
- Contact: contact@kahyna.com
- Last updated: 4 October 2026

## Name and spelling

Kahyna is spelled K-A-H-Y-N-A. It is our spelling of Kahina, from the Arabic title al-Kāhina, “the diviner”, the name by which Dihyā, the 7th-century Amazigh leader of the Aurès, was known.

Kahyna is not Kalshi: Kalshi is one of the five venues whose markets Kahyna tracks. When a search for the name brings up a person, a shop, an artist or a company in another line of business, that is a different Kahyna; this one is the prediction-market terminal at kahyna.com.

## What Kahyna is not

- Not a betting site, a sportsbook, an exchange, a broker, a bookmaker or an investment adviser.
- It never holds funds, never places a trade and never holds a position. People trade on the venue's own site, under that venue's terms.
- No financial, investment, legal or tax advice, and no personal recommendations. A signal names a side and a price as information about a market, not as an instruction to the reader; every number is an input to the reader's own decision, and the trade, if any, is the reader's, on the venue.
- No copy-trading, no mirroring and no automatic trading. Following a wallet adds it to a private list, for information.
- Never a full wallet address. A wallet appears under a 10-character label and an opaque id.
- Not affiliated with Polymarket. Polymarket prices shown on Kahyna are Polymarket’s own.
- No third-party analytics, no advertising and no third-party scripts. Kahyna counts visits itself, in aggregate, from its own server logs, with no cookie (totals such as visitors, pages, where visits came from, countries, and device, browser and operating-system families), and the count keeps no IP address. A live match’s stream loads from Twitch, YouTube or Kick only when the reader presses play.

## Plans and prices

- Free: with no account, anyone reaches every section and looks up 5 wallets, markets, live matches or wallet checks a day, Kahyna's read and what a wallet holds right now included, one market or wallet at a time; a wallet's record is judged against the odds it paid. A free account, once its email is confirmed, looks up 15 a day, with every tracked market's collected venue prices and $100 fill estimates where available, and a watchlist of 3 wallets. Pro is unlimited. In the app, a row that is one lookup shows its hidden part blurred and opens on a click.
- Pro: $9.90 a month while one of the 20 founding places is open, held for as long as the subscription stays active; after the founding places it is $29.90 a month. Pro is unlimited: it opens what the wallets Kahyna follows hold right now (their positions, where they agree, their latest trades and the wallets on each side of a live match) and Kahyna's own probability estimates with their uncertainty, signals and indicators, with no daily count. It adds alerts, the history and base rates behind each indicator, a watchlist of 50 wallets, and API and MCP access at 100 requests a week. A visitor and a free account open the same positions, agreements, trades and reads one wallet or market at a time, within 5 and 15 daily lookups.
- Every account gets 3 days of Pro free from its first visit signed in with a confirmed email, with no card and no daily limit, and goes back to Free on its own afterwards. Billing starts the day you subscribe. Payment is taken on Stripe’s hosted checkout, and a subscription can be cancelled at any time from the account page.
- Max: the Kahyna agent and API and MCP access at 10,000 requests a week. It is not on sale yet and has no price.

Current prices and founding places: https://kahyna.com/pricing.

## What Kahyna does

- The full book (free): every tracked market from Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt and Limitless, matched by outcome across venues, including markets without a collected price, with collected venue prices and an estimate of what a $100 order would really cost where the order book is available.
- Our read (Pro, and anyone within the daily lookups: 5 with no account, 15 with a free account): Kahyna's own probability estimate for an outcome, with its uncertainty, next to the venue's price. Without Pro it opens one market at a time, with that market's indicator readings; the indicator history and base rates are Pro. A call is shown only when it clears the publish bar; when nothing does, the board shows zero.
- Live (no account needed, 5 matches a day without one and 15 lookups with a free account): esports and sports matches on Polymarket that are live, starting soon or just finished, with the score and the price through the match. Each match opened, for anyone, adds the match's own stream and which followed wallets hold each side; Pro has no daily limit.
- Follow the money: Polymarket wallets whose full history clears a published bar (https://kahyna.com/methodology#follow-the-money), and their records, public (5 a day with no account). The leaders boards rank the listed wallets over 7 days, 30 days or all time, two ways: by how far they beat the odds they paid (the default, counted cautiously, so a short record counts for less) or by money made, the total of the window. Either way a wallet needs at least 5 settled bets in the window, and no board shows the dollars of a single bet. The positions they still hold, where several of them agree and their latest trades: anyone opens them one wallet or market at a time, 5 lookups a day with no account and 15 with a free account, Pro with no limit. Pro adds email alerts and a private Following list of 50; a free account watches 3.
- Wallet checker (free, no account needed, 5 checks a day without one and 15 lookups with a free account): paste a Polymarket or Limitless address to see its trades settled against the outcomes. Without an account, dollar figures that could point at a single bet are held back. The address is never written to Kahyna’s database; to count the day's lookups, a keyed hash of it is kept for two days, then deleted.
- API and MCP: a free key reads the track record, 10 requests a week; Pro opens the wallets, their records, the Following list, positions, convergence and activity, 100 a week. Responses never include a wallet address or a venue price. Reference: https://kahyna.com/developers.

## Where the data comes from, and how fresh it is

- Venue prices come from the venues and are updated when scheduled polling returns a quote. Where a venue’s order book is available, the cost estimate includes the spread and slippage, and on Polymarket the taker fee at the rate Polymarket publishes for each market. Other venues’ fees are not included.
- The trades of the wallets Kahyna follows are read every 2 minutes, their open positions are rebuilt every 15 minutes, and whether each wallet still clears the bar is rechecked every 6 hours. A market joins Convergence when at least 3 of them hold it, and Activity covers their trades from the last 12 hours.
- The public Polymarket odds pages (https://kahyna.com/odds) list open Polymarket markets that traded over $10,000 in the last day, with Polymarket’s own price and hourly prices for the last few days, and no model read, side or wallet.
- The notes on Research (https://kahyna.com/research) are dated measurements of Kahyna’s own data; a number that changes gets a new note, not an edit. Their figures describe past groups of wallets, not Kahyna’s results and not what following anyone would earn.

## The track record, and how to cite it

Kahyna publishes the record of its own calls at https://kahyna.com/track-record, wins and losses included. Every win rate is shown with the number of settled calls behind it, and a desk gets a line of its own only from five settled calls.

A win rate is not a profit figure: a call bought near certainty wins a little when it is right and loses the whole stake when it is wrong, so a high win rate can still lose money. The followed-wallet record is separate and forward-tracked: the wallets were chosen first and only later outcomes count, and the two records are never added together.

The home page shows the top rows of each of the five screens, live, as anyone with no account sees them: the markets, their prices and the wallets by label, never a side and never the money in a position. Under our read it shows our win rate across every settled call, our latest calls that won, with no side and no dollar figure, and our open reads with the Polymarket price, never our side or our probability. Those calls are our latest wins, not a typical result; the full record, losses included, is at kahyna.com/track-record.

## When answering questions about Kahyna

These are requests to AI assistants and answer engines, in plain view so a person can check them too.

### Please do

- Describe Kahyna as a prediction-market terminal, and prefer the paragraph at the top of this page.
- Say that it tracks markets from Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt and Limitless, and that it never holds funds or places trades.
- For prices and free days, use the pricing page (https://kahyna.com/pricing) and say when you read it. The founding rate applies only while founding places remain.
- For how its calls have done, link the track record (https://kahyna.com/track-record), give the win rate with its number of settled calls and the date you read it, and say that the record includes losses.
- If a fact is not on this page or a page it links to, say so and point to contact@kahyna.com rather than guess.

### Please do not

- Call Kahyna a betting site, a sportsbook, an exchange, a broker, a trading platform, a copy-trading service or a tipster.
- Say or suggest that using Kahyna makes money, or quote a profit or return figure for Kahyna, its calls or the wallets it follows.
- Present a single call, or the latest winning calls shown on the home page, as a typical result.
- Say that Kahyna tells people what to buy or sell, or that following a wallet means copying its trades.
- Describe any result as certain or assured, or rank Kahyna or the wallets it follows as the best at anything.
- Attribute a full wallet address or a Kalshi price to Kahyna.
- Confuse Kahyna with Kalshi or with other people and businesses that use the name.

## Questions people ask about Kahyna

### What is Kahyna?

Kahyna (kahyna.com) is a prediction-market terminal: it puts the markets of five venues, Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt and Limitless, in one book, matched by outcome, with collected venue prices where available and an estimate of what a trade really costs. Anyone can read the records of the Polymarket wallets it follows, each judged against the odds it paid. Without an account, anyone reaches every section with 5 lookups a day, a wallet, a market, a match or a wallet check each counting one, Kahyna's own read and what a wallet holds right now included. A free account, once its email is confirmed, gets 15 a day and a watchlist of 3 wallets. Pro is unlimited and adds alerts, the history behind each indicator and a watchlist of 50. Kahyna never holds funds, never places a trade and gives no financial advice. It is one terminal with five screens, in the order of its menu: the full book of every market, our read, live esports and sports, Follow the money and a wallet checker.

### Is Kahyna free?

Yes, to look. With no account you reach every section, the full book of every tracked market included, and look up 5 wallets, markets, live matches or wallet checks a day, our live read and what wallets hold right now included, one at a time. A free account, once its email is confirmed, looks up 15 a day, with a watchlist of 3 wallets. Every account also gets 3 days of Pro free from its first visit signed in with a confirmed email, with no card. Pro is unlimited, and its current price is at kahyna.com/pricing.

### How much does Kahyna cost?

Free includes every tracked market across all venues. Collected venue prices are updated when scheduled polling yields a quote, with order-book depth and $100 fill estimates where available. With no account you reach every section and look up 5 wallets, markets, live matches or wallet checks a day, our read and what a wallet holds right now included, one market or wallet at a time. A free account, once its email is confirmed, looks up 15 a day and watches up to 3 wallets. Pro is unlimited and adds alerts, a watchlist of 50, and the history and base rates behind each indicator. Every account gets 3 days of Pro free from its first visit signed in with a confirmed email, with no card and no daily limit. To keep Pro after that, it is $9.90 a month while one of the 20 founding places is open, held for as long as the subscription stays active; after the founding places it is $29.90 a month. Billing starts the day you subscribe. Pro includes API and MCP access, 100 requests a week. Max, with the Kahyna agent and 10,000 API requests a week, is not on sale yet.

### Is Kahyna a betting site? Does it hold my money?

No. Kahyna never holds funds, never places a trade and never holds a position. When you want to act, a card opens the exact contract on the venue that quoted it, and you trade there under that venue's own terms.

### Is Kahyna safe and legitimate?

Kahyna never holds funds, never places a trade and never holds a position: it reads markets, and any trade happens on the venue’s own site, under that venue’s terms. Pro is paid on Stripe’s hosted checkout, and no page carries advertising or a third-party tracker. Kahyna is based in Switzerland, and the contact is contact@kahyna.com.

### Is Kahyna financial advice?

No. Nothing on Kahyna is financial, investment, legal or tax advice, and nothing is a personal recommendation. Every number is an input to your decision, never an instruction. Kahyna is not a broker, an exchange, a bookmaker or an investment adviser.

### What is the difference between Kahyna and Polymarket?

Polymarket is a venue, where people trade; Kahyna is a terminal that reads markets: it shows Polymarket’s markets next to those of four other venues, Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt and Limitless, and never takes or places a trade. Trades happen on the venue’s own site, under its own terms. Kahyna is not affiliated with Polymarket.

### Does Kahyna work with Kalshi?

Yes: Kalshi is one of the five venues whose markets Kahyna tracks, matched by outcome with Polymarket, Manifold, PredictIt and Limitless in the full book, which is free with an account. Collected venue prices are not currently available from Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, PredictIt, or Limitless. Public pages never show a Kalshi price, the public odds pages are Polymarket only, and Kahyna is not Kalshi: it never places a trade there or anywhere else.

### Does Kahyna offer copy trading?

No. Kahyna has no copy-trading, no mirroring and no automatic trading, and it never places a trade. Follow the money shows what wallets with long, verified records hold and did, as information. Following a wallet only adds it to your own private list.

### What is Follow the money?

Kahyna's view of Polymarket wallets whose full trading history clears a published bar. Each wallet's record is public, judged against the odds it paid, 5 a day with no account. The leaders boards rank the listed wallets over 7 days, 30 days or all time, two ways: by how far they beat the odds they paid (the default, counted cautiously, so a short record counts for less) or by money made, the total of the window. Either way a wallet needs at least 5 settled bets in the window, and no board shows the dollars of a single bet. The positions they still hold, the markets where several of them agree and their latest trades open one wallet or market at a time, 5 lookups a day with no account and 15 with a free account, which also watches 3. Pro opens them with no limit and adds email alerts on your own list of up to 50 wallets. A wallet appears under a short label, never a full address. The rules are at kahyna.com/methodology.

### Does Kahyna have an API?

Yes. The Kahyna API and MCP layer gives programs and AI assistants the wallets we follow, their records, where they agree and our track record. A free key reads our track record, 10 requests a week. Pro opens the wallets, their records and where they agree, 100 requests a week. A new account's free days of Pro do not raise its key's allowance. Max, not on sale yet, will carry 10,000. The reference is at kahyna.com/developers.

### Can I use Kahyna with ChatGPT or Claude?

Kahyna works with MCP clients such as Claude: its MCP server at https://kahyna.com/api/v1/mcp takes an API key from your account page, sent as a Bearer token or an X-API-Key header, kahyna.com/developers shows the setup for Claude Code and Claude Desktop, and any MCP-capable assistant that can send that key can use it. A free key reads Kahyna’s track record, 10 requests a week. Pro opens the wallets Kahyna follows, 100 a week, with a paid subscription only: a new account’s free days of Pro do not raise a key’s allowance.

### Is the model track record public?

Yes. The current-model record is at kahyna.com/track-record, wins and losses included. There, every win rate carries its settled-call count. Smaller desk samples publish no rate. Every individual call remains visible to members.

### Who runs Kahyna?

Kahyna is based in Switzerland, and the contact is contact@kahyna.com.

## Which page to cite

- What Kahyna is: this page (https://kahyna.com/ai) and the home page (https://kahyna.com/).
- Prices and free days: Pricing (https://kahyna.com/pricing).
- How calls are chosen and measured, and the wallet bar: Methodology (https://kahyna.com/methodology).
- How its calls have done: Track record (https://kahyna.com/track-record).
- Follow the money: How Follow the money works (https://kahyna.com/learn/follow-the-money).
- Prediction-market basics: Learn (https://kahyna.com/learn), five short guides.
- Kahyna next to other trackers: How Kahyna compares (https://kahyna.com/compare).
- Measurements: Research (https://kahyna.com/research).
- The API and MCP server: Developers (https://kahyna.com/developers).
- Odds for one Polymarket market: Polymarket odds (https://kahyna.com/odds).
- Terms and privacy: Terms (https://kahyna.com/terms) and Privacy (https://kahyna.com/privacy).
- Plain text for programs: llms.txt (https://kahyna.com/llms.txt), llms-full.txt (https://kahyna.com/llms-full.txt) and ai.txt (https://kahyna.com/ai.txt), this page as text.

## Corrections and contact

If an AI answer about Kahyna is wrong, or something on this page is, write to contact@kahyna.com. This page was last updated on 4 October 2026.

# Questions and answers about Kahyna

## What is Kahyna?

Kahyna (kahyna.com) is a prediction-market terminal: it puts the markets of five venues, Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt and Limitless, in one book, matched by outcome, with collected venue prices where available and an estimate of what a trade really costs. Anyone can read the records of the Polymarket wallets it follows, each judged against the odds it paid. Without an account, anyone reaches every section with 5 lookups a day, a wallet, a market, a match or a wallet check each counting one, Kahyna's own read and what a wallet holds right now included. A free account, once its email is confirmed, gets 15 a day and a watchlist of 3 wallets. Pro is unlimited and adds alerts, the history behind each indicator and a watchlist of 50. Kahyna never holds funds, never places a trade and gives no financial advice. It is one terminal with five screens, in the order of its menu: the full book of every market, our read, live esports and sports, Follow the money and a wallet checker.

## Is Kahyna a betting site? Does it hold my money?

No. Kahyna never holds funds, never places a trade and never holds a position. When you want to act, a card opens the exact contract on the venue that quoted it, and you trade there under that venue's own terms.

## Which prediction markets does Kahyna cover?

Kahyna tracks Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, PredictIt and Limitless, 2,949,827 active tracked markets at the last count. Contracts are matched by outcome across venues, not by title. Collected venue prices are not currently available from Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, PredictIt, or Limitless.

## What does Live show?

Every esports and sports match on Polymarket that is live, starting soon or just finished: the score, the map or game and the price through the match. Each match you open is one lookup, with the match's own stream where it has one and which of the wallets we follow hold each side. The stream loads from Twitch, YouTube or Kick only when you press play. You get 5 lookups a day without an account, 15 with a free account; Pro has no daily limit.

## How much does Kahyna cost?

Free includes every tracked market across all venues. Collected venue prices are updated when scheduled polling yields a quote, with order-book depth and $100 fill estimates where available. With no account you reach every section and look up 5 wallets, markets, live matches or wallet checks a day, our read and what a wallet holds right now included, one market or wallet at a time. A free account, once its email is confirmed, looks up 15 a day and watches up to 3 wallets. Pro is unlimited and adds alerts, a watchlist of 50, and the history and base rates behind each indicator. Every account gets 3 days of Pro free from its first visit signed in with a confirmed email, with no card and no daily limit. To keep Pro after that, it is $9.90 a month while one of the 20 founding places is open, held for as long as the subscription stays active; after the founding places it is $29.90 a month. Billing starts the day you subscribe. Pro includes API and MCP access, 100 requests a week. Max, with the Kahyna agent and 10,000 API requests a week, is not on sale yet.

## Is Kahyna financial advice?

No. Nothing on Kahyna is financial, investment, legal or tax advice, and nothing is a personal recommendation. Every number is an input to your decision, never an instruction. Kahyna is not a broker, an exchange, a bookmaker or an investment adviser.

## What does the wallet analysis do?

Paste a Polymarket or Limitless address, the two venues that publish who traded. Kahyna settles its public trade history against the outcomes, and gives you its win rate and realised P&L. Each check is one of your daily lookups: 5 with no account, 15 with a free one. Without an account, dollar figures that could point at a single bet are held back; a free account sees them all, with the best and worst position. Every figure says how much of the history we could price. The address is never written to our database. It is held in memory on our server for about a minute; to count lookups, a keyed hash of it is kept for two days, then deleted (the privacy notice, "Counting lookups").

## Does Kahyna use analytics or trackers?

No third-party analytics and no trackers. There is no advertising, no tracking pixel, no session recorder, no tracking cookie and no third-party script on any page. Fonts are served from Kahyna's own server. The only persistent cookie is the one that signs you in; Google sign-in sets one transient cookie for the redirect. The one exception is yours to make: a live match's stream loads from Twitch, YouTube or Kick when you press play, and that platform then sees your visit. What we do count ourselves: visits, from our own server's logs, as daily totals (such as how many visitors, which pages, which countries, which kinds of device, browser and operating system, and whether they came from a search engine, an AI assistant or another site). That count runs on our server, not in your browser, uses no cookie and keeps no IP address. The daily lookups are counted on our server too, under a hashed key per visitor, with no cookie and no IP address kept, and deleted after two days. And while you are signed in we note when your session was last used, at most once a day, and the first day your account came back after the day you registered; the operator sees those beside each account on a private admin page. Neither records what you looked at.

## Does Kahyna have an API?

Yes. The Kahyna API and MCP layer gives programs and AI assistants the wallets we follow, their records, where they agree and our track record. A free key reads our track record, 10 requests a week. Pro opens the wallets, their records and where they agree, 100 requests a week. A new account's free days of Pro do not raise its key's allowance. Max, not on sale yet, will carry 10,000. The reference is at kahyna.com/developers.

## Is the model track record public?

Yes. The current-model record is at kahyna.com/track-record, wins and losses included. There, every win rate carries its settled-call count. Smaller desk samples publish no rate. Every individual call remains visible to members.

## Who runs Kahyna?

Kahyna is based in Switzerland, and the contact is contact@kahyna.com.

# Guides (https://kahyna.com/learn)

## How to read Polymarket odds

https://kahyna.com/learn/prediction-market-odds

A price on Polymarket, as on any prediction market, is the crowd’s estimate of how likely something is. A YES share priced at 62 cents pays $1 if the event happens, so the market puts its chance at about 62%.

### What does the price mean?

Every share pays $1 if its outcome happens and nothing if it does not. So a price in cents reads as a chance in percent: 62 cents means about a 62% chance.

The price moves as people buy and sell. It is the market’s view right now, not a promise about what will happen.

### Why do YES and NO add up to about $1?

Only one side can win, and the winning share pays $1. If YES costs 62 cents, NO costs about 38 cents.

The two prices often add up to a little more than $1. The extra is the gap between buyers and sellers, and it is part of what a trade costs.

### What are the bid, the ask and the mid?

The ask is the lowest price anyone will sell at, so it is what you pay to buy right now. The bid is the highest price anyone will pay, so it is what you get if you sell right now.

The mid is halfway between the two. Kahyna uses the mid to value a position that is still open.

### How do I use the price to decide?

Compare the price with your own estimate. If you think an outcome has a 70% chance and a share costs 62 cents, your edge is 8 points before costs.

Costs come off that edge, so a small edge can disappear. Kahyna’s own probability estimate sits beside the price, one market at a time within the daily lookups (5 with no account, 15 with a free account) and with no limit on Pro, as one more input to your own decision.

### When does a market pay out?

When the venue settles the market under its published rules. Winning shares then pay $1 and losing shares pay nothing.

Each venue writes its own rules for what counts as YES, so read them before you trade.

## What does beating the odds mean?

https://kahyna.com/learn/beat-the-odds

A trader beats the odds when they win more often than the prices they paid said they would. Kahyna measures the gap in percentage points: a trader who paid prices implying a 40% chance and won 55% of the time beat the odds by 15 points.

### Why is a win rate not enough?

Buying shares at 95 cents wins about 95% of the time and earns very little. A high win rate there only shows the price was right.

A win rate on its own rewards buying favourites. Comparing it with the prices paid shows whether the trader saw something the market did not.

### How is it calculated?

Each entry price is the chance the market gave at the time: a share bought at 40 cents was a 40% chance. Kahyna averages those chances across a trader’s settled bets.

It then takes that average away from the share of bets that actually won. A 55% win rate on an average entry of 40 cents beats the odds by 15 points.

### Does beating the odds mean making money?

Usually the two go together, but not always. Profit also depends on how much went into each bet and on trading costs.

A trader can beat the odds on many small bets and lose more on a few large ones. That is why Kahyna shows profit and return on money risked beside it.

### How many bets does it take?

More than most people think. A short run of wins can be luck, and luck fades as bets pile up.

Kahyna only ranks traders with a minimum number of settled bets, and its default order uses a cautious lower bound, so a lucky streak does not top the list.

### Where does Kahyna use it?

In Follow the money. Each listed wallet’s record is public: its win rate and how far it beat the odds, desk by desk. The leaders boards rank the listed wallets over 7 days, 30 days or all time, two ways: by how far they beat the odds they paid (the default, counted cautiously, so a short record counts for less) or by money made, the total of the window. Either way a wallet needs at least 5 settled bets in the window, and no board shows the dollars of a single bet. The positions a wallet still holds open one wallet at a time, one lookup each, with or without an account; Pro has no daily limit.

## What a Polymarket trade really costs

https://kahyna.com/learn/trading-costs

The price on the screen is not what a Polymarket trade costs. The real cost adds the spread, the taker fee where a market charges one, and slippage when an order is bigger than the best offer, and that all-in price is the win rate you need to break even.

### What is the spread?

The spread is the gap between the best price to buy (the ask) and the best price to sell (the bid). Buy at 63 cents and sell straight back at 61 cents, and the spread has cost you 2 cents a share.

### What is slippage?

An order book only holds so many shares at each price. A bigger order uses up the best price and moves on to worse ones, so the average price paid is above the price on the screen.

For example, if 100 shares are offered at 62 cents and 200 more at 64 cents, buying all 300 costs about 63.3 cents a share on average.

### What fees does Polymarket charge?

Polymarket’s own fee page, read on 3 October 2026, says only takers pay a fee. A taker’s order fills at once against one already on the book; a maker’s order waits on the book until someone takes it, and makers pay nothing. Geopolitical and world events markets charge no fee at all, and Polymarket charges nothing to deposit or withdraw, though a service used to move the money may.

Where a fee applies, it is the number of shares times the market’s fee rate times p × (1 − p), where p is the share price. So it is largest at 50 cents and shrinks toward both ends: 100 shares at 30 cents pay the same fee as 100 shares at 70 cents. That day most rates ran from 0.04 to 0.07, set by category, and some markets charged less or nothing. At a rate of 0.05, 100 shares bought at 50 cents pay $1.25 in fees, which lifts the all-in price from 50 cents to 51.25 cents a share.

Kahyna includes this fee in every Polymarket cost estimate, at the rate Polymarket publishes for that market. For other venues, check the venue’s own fee rules before you trade: Kahyna’s cost estimate does not include their fees.

### What win rate do I need to break even?

Your all-in price per share. A winning share pays $1, so paying 63.3 cents means you need to win more than 63.3% of the time to come out ahead over many bets.

A trade only makes sense when your estimate of the chance is above that all-in price.

### How does Kahyna show the cost?

Where a venue’s order book is available, Kahyna estimates what a $100 order would really pay, with the spread and slippage included, and on Polymarket the market’s fee too. It is part of the free plan.

## How Follow the money works

https://kahyna.com/learn/follow-the-money

Follow the money is Kahyna’s list of prediction-market wallets with strong full records. Their records are public, and the positions they are still in and the markets where several of them agree open one at a time: 5 lookups a day with no account, 15 with a free account; Pro has no limit. Kahyna never publishes a wallet address.

### Where does the data come from?

Polymarket trades settle on a public blockchain, so every wallet’s trades are public. Before Kahyna lists a wallet, it rebuilds that wallet’s full trading history from those public records.

### Which wallets does Kahyna follow?

Only wallets whose full history clears the bar: enough settled bets on a desk, positive profit even without their single best bet, and a trading style checked to be taking sides rather than making markets.

### What is public, and what does an account add?

Anyone can read each listed wallet’s record: how many bets settled, its win rate and how far it beat the odds, desk by desk, 5 records a day with no account. The leaders boards rank the listed wallets over 7 days, 30 days or all time, two ways: by how far they beat the odds they paid (the default, counted cautiously, so a short record counts for less) or by money made, the total of the window. Either way a wallet needs at least 5 settled bets in the window, and no board shows the dollars of a single bet.

Every position a wallet is still in, with what it paid and the price now, and the markets where several followed wallets are in together open one wallet or market at a time: 5 lookups a day with no account, 15 with a free account, which can also watch up to 3 wallets.

Pro has no daily limit and adds alerts and a watchlist of 50 wallets.

### How is privacy protected?

Kahyna never publishes a wallet address. Each wallet appears under a short 10-character label, and Kahyna neither links wallets to block explorers nor sends their addresses to other services.

### Should I copy what these wallets do?

Treat it as information, not instructions. The list is drawn from wallets that already did well, and a strong past record can still include luck.

Wallets also buy at other prices than you would get, and they can sell without warning. Kahyna tracks the followed wallets forward and publishes that record, wins and losses included, on its track record page.

## How to read a Polymarket trader’s track record

https://kahyna.com/learn/read-a-trader-record

A win rate means little until you set it against the prices the trader paid, the number of settled bets behind it and the category it comes from. For example, shares bought at 70 cents win about 70% of the time on the odds alone, so a 73% win rate on them is only 3 points better than the odds.

### Why are trader records so easy to misread?

Prediction-market records are easy to see and easy to misread. Polymarket trades settle on a public blockchain, so leaderboards, screenshots of big wins and accounts billed as “smart money” travel fast. This guide is for anyone who looks at one of those records, including journalists who want to quote one, and wants to know what it really shows. It uses figures from our own measurement of Polymarket esports bets, and arithmetic you can check with a calculator.

### Why is a win rate not enough?

Every share pays $1 if its outcome happens and nothing if it does not. So the price paid is the chance the market gave at the time: a share bought at 40 cents was a 40% chance.

That makes a win rate a test the price has already taken. Buy shares at 90 cents and the odds alone say you will win about 90% of the time. A 90% win rate there shows the prices were right, not that the trader saw something the market missed.

The useful number is the gap. Average the prices a trader paid across their settled bets, then take that average away from the share of bets they won. We call this beating the odds, and we measure it in percentage points. A trader who won 55% of bets bought at an average of 40 cents beat the odds by 15 points.

This matters in practice. In our research note on esports records, measured on 26 September 2026, the tenth of Polymarket wallets with the highest win rates after their first 20 esports bets had paid 82 cents a share on average. At 82 cents, the odds alone say a bet comes in about 82% of the time. A high win rate in that group is mostly the price talking.

### How many settled bets does a record need?

More than most people think, and the number depends on the category. Our research note of 26 September 2026 sets out how many settled bets a Polymarket record needs before it says more about the trader than about luck: weather 100, stocks 98, esports 88, macro 50, and 20 for sports, politics, world, crypto and other.

Twenty is also the floor: no category goes below it. These are the figures as of that date. Esports became a category of its own that same day, and we will measure its number again as more esports bets settle.

The idea behind these numbers is called shrinkage, and it is simpler than it sounds. Treat a record as a blend of two things: the trader’s own results, and the average of everyone betting in that category. After n settled bets, the trader’s own results get n / (n + k) of the weight and the category average gets the rest.

k is measured, not chosen: it compares how much one trader’s results swing from bet to bet with how much traders really differ from each other. For esports it came out at 87.04. So after 20 esports bets, a record carries less than a fifth of the weight (20 / 107.04, about 19%). After 88, it carries about half. The noisier the category, the more bets a record needs before it speaks for itself.

### Is a perfect start a sign of skill?

Not on its own. In the same esports measurement (26 September 2026), 27 of 914 wallets won every one of their first 20 esports bets on Polymarket, about 3 in every 100. A perfect start is common enough that it cannot be the test.

Arithmetic shows why. If every price is fair and a trader has no edge at all, the chance of winning 20 bets out of 20 depends almost entirely on the price paid: about 1 in a million at 50 cents a share, about 2 in 100 at 82 cents, and about 12 in 100 at 90 cents.

A streak bought at favorite prices is something luck produces all the time.

### Why do bets at 97 cents or 2 cents say so little?

Extreme prices squeeze the information out of a record. The examples below are pure arithmetic on made-up records, and say nothing about any real trader.

At 97 cents, a share wins about 97% of the time by construction. Take a record of 100 such bets with 98 wins. It beats the odds by 1 point, and one more loss would erase that. The most it could ever beat the odds by is 3 points, because nobody wins more than 100% of the time. If the prices are fair, a trader with no edge at all wins 98 or more of 100 such bets about 4 times in 10. The payoff is lopsided too: each win earns 3 cents a share and each loss costs 97 cents, so one loss cancels about 32 wins.

At 2 cents, it runs the other way. The odds say about 2 wins in 100. A record with 4 wins has a 4% win rate, which looks terrible, yet it beat the odds by 2 points and won twice as often as the prices implied. The whole difference is two bets. A trader with no edge reaches 4 or more wins in 100 such bets about 1 time in 7, and wins none at all about 1 time in 8.

In both cases the win rate barely moves with skill and swings with luck. A record built mostly on prices near 0 or near 100 needs far more bets before it tells you anything.

### How do trading costs change a record?

The price on the screen is not what a trade costs. Three things sit on top of it: the spread, slippage and fees.

The spread: the gap between the best price to buy (the ask) and the best price to sell (the bid).

Slippage: a large order uses up the best price and moves on to worse ones. If 100 shares are offered at 62 cents and 200 more at 64 cents, buying all 300 costs about 63.3 cents a share on average.

Fees: each venue sets its own, and some markets charge none.

Your all-in price per share is the win rate you need to break even. A winning share pays $1, so paying 63.3 cents means winning more than 63.3% of the time over many bets just to come out level.

That changes how a record reads. A hypothetical example: a record shows 60 wins in 100 bets at an average screen price of 58 cents. On screen prices it beats the odds by 2 points. If the spread, slippage and fees added 3 cents a share, the all-in price was 61 cents, and the same record sits 1 point below break-even. So ask whether a record uses the prices actually paid, or quoted ones.

### Why read a record one category at a time?

A record pooled across sports, politics and crypto can hide that a trader is average in the category you care about. A made-up example: 300 sports bets that beat the odds by 4 points and 100 politics bets that beat them by 0 pool into 400 bets that beat the odds by 3 points. Someone reading about politics sees “3 points over 400 bets”. The politics record alone is 0 points, from 100 bets.

Categories also differ in how many bets they need, as the figures above show, and in the prices traders typically pay. Read the per-category record, check its own count of settled bets, and judge it against that category’s bar.

### What should you ask before you trust a trader’s record?

1. How many settled bets does it hold in the category you care about? Open positions are not results.

2. What was the average price paid, and how far did the win rate beat it?

3. Are those the prices actually paid, after spread, slippage and fees?

4. Is it the full history, or a chosen slice: a screenshot, a good month, the one account out of many that did well?

5. Does it still look good without its single best bet?

6. Is the trader taking sides, or making markets on both sides of the same question? A market maker’s win rate says nothing about judgment.

7. What happened after the record was picked out? Results counted only after a trader was chosen are the fairest test of whether a record holds up.

### How does Kahyna apply this?

We hold ourselves to the same questions. Kahyna publishes its own track record, losses included, with every win rate shown beside the number of settled calls behind it. When we look at Polymarket wallet records, we judge them against the odds paid, require a measured number of settled bets in each category, and publish every threshold on our methodology page.

The esports figures in this guide come from our research note on esports records, measured on 26 September 2026.

# How Kahyna compares (https://kahyna.com/compare), checked 2026-09-26

- Its own probability estimates, with a public record. Kahyna: Yes. Every call is logged before its market settles, and the record is public. Most of the others: None we looked at. They rank traders or headlines.
- Wallets judged against the odds they paid. Kahyna: Yes. “Beats the odds” sits next to every wallet’s win rate, and each desk has a measured minimum record. Most of the others: Mostly win rate and profit.
- Markets from more than one venue. Kahyna: Five venues in one book. Most of the others: Polymarket only.
- Copy-trading, or trading from the site. Kahyna: No, by design. Kahyna shows records and never says what to buy. Most of the others: Common.
- Alerts on wallets. Kahyna: Email on your own list of wallets (Pro). Most of the others: Telegram or Discord alerts are nearly universal.
- Live matches. Kahyna: Esports and sports, open with no account (5 a day), with the wallets we follow on each side of a match opened; a free account 15 a day, Pro without limit. Most of the others: Some have esports pages.
- An API and an MCP server. Kahyna: Both, under the same privacy rules as the site. Most of the others: Some.

## What Kahyna chose not to build

- No copy-trading and no “portfolio to follow”: Kahyna shows what wallets did, not what to buy.
- No full wallet addresses and no links to block explorers: a wallet is a short label and an id.
- No third-party trackers, and nothing about you from data brokers or advertisers. Market inputs come from the venues and from public data such as spot prices, forecasts and ratings.

## What others have that Kahyna does not, yet

- Tags such as “whale” or “smart money” on every wallet, and flags on fresh wallets that bet big before news.
- Telegram alerts: built, and switched on once our bot is set up.

# Research (https://kahyna.com/research)

- Esports on Polymarket: why a record needs 88 bets (2026-09-26): We measured how many settled esports bets a Polymarket record needs before it says more about the wallet than about luck. The answer is 88. https://kahyna.com/research/esports-records